The effect of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence in 314 Latin American cities: a longitudinal ecological study with mobile phone location data.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of changes in mobility at the subcity level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence, which is particularly relevant in Latin America, where substantial barriers prevent COVID-19 vaccine access and non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to mitigation efforts. We aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level across a large number of Latin American cities. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and features of urban and social environments to analyse population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level among cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico, from March 2 to Aug 29, 2020. Spatially aggregated mobile phone data were provided by the UN Development Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata; confirmed COVID-19 cases were from national government reports and population and socioeconomic factors were from the latest national census in each country. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression for a time-series analysis, to examine longitudinal associations between weekly mobility changes from baseline (prepandemic week of March 2-9, 2020) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence (lagged by 1-6 weeks) at the subcity level, adjusting for urban environmental and socioeconomic factors (time-invariant educational attainment, residential overcrowding, population density [all at the subcity level], and country). FINDINGS: We included 1031 subcity areas, representing 314 Latin American cities, in Argentina (107 subcity areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20), and Mexico (406). In the main adjusted model, we observed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2·35 (95% CI 2·12-2·60) for COVID-19 incidence per log unit increase in the mobility ratio (vs baseline) during the previous week. Thus, 10% lower weekly mobility was associated with 8·6% (95% CI 7·6-9·6) lower incidence of COVID-19 in the following week. This association gradually weakened as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from null at a 6-week lag. INTERPRETATION: Reduced population movement within a subcity area is associated with a subsequent decrease in COVID-19 incidence among residents of that subcity area. Policies that reduce population mobility at the subcity level might be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategy, although they should be combined with strategies that mitigate any adverse social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Monitoring Study Participants and Implementation with Phone Calls to Support Hypertension Control During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of a Multicomponent Intervention Trial in Guatemala.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic presents a challenge to health care for patients with chronic diseases, especially hypertension, because of the important association and increased risk of these patients with a severe presentation of COVID-19 disease. The Guatemalan Ministry of Health has been implementing a multi-component program aimed at improving hypertension control in rural communities since 2019 as a part of an intervention research cluster randomized trial. When the first cases of COVID-19 were reported (March 13, 2020) in Guatemala, our study paused all study field activities, and began monitoring participants through phone calls. The objective of this paper is to describe the approach used to monitor study participants during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare data obtained during phone calls for intervention and control group participants. Methods: We developed a cross-sectional study within the HyTREC (Hypertension Outcomes for T4 Research within Lower Middle-Income Countries) project 'Multicomponent Intervention to Improve Hypertension Control in Central America: Guatemala' in which phone calls were made to participants from both intervention and control groups to monitor measures important to the study: delivery of antihypertensive medications in both groups, receipt of coaching sessions and use of a home blood pressure monitor by intervention group participants, as well as reasons that they were not implemented. Results: Regarding the delivery of antihypertensive drugs by the MoH to participants, those in the intervention group had a higher level of medication delivery (73%) than the control group (51%), p<0.001. Of the total participants in the intervention group, 62% had received at least one health coaching session in the previous three months and 81% used a digital home blood pressure monitor at least twice a week. Intervention activities were lower than expected due to restricted public transportation on top of decreased availability of health providers. Conclusion: In Guatemala, specifically in rural settings, access to antihypertensive medications and health services during pandemic times was impaired and less than expected, even after accounting for the program's implementation activities and actions.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Guatemala.

Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1839-1846. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452).